How long can metal price rise last

Since the middle of January, copper prices have risen 13.5%, zinc prices rose about 25%, iron ore prices jumped 57%.

Analysts said this round of price increases reasons include China’s real estate market is improving and investors think 2015 metal has been oversold, etc.

But some analysts say, even a decline in metal prices have hit a recent round of cycle low, are unlikely to return to the glory of our past.

ANZ Bank (ANZ Bank) analyst Daniel Hynes said that the excess supply will curb prices, so is unlikely to see hitting a high of the previous cycle. Even after the recent rise, he said, the current price of the metal is still far lower than in the past five to six years of cyclical highs.

Taizhou Huangyan Junda Molding manager Che Weitao, said he expected iron ore prices rise no more than six months.

, he said, China’s real estate market may not always be soaring, the government must take measures to cool the market, the government will take measures at the time of the impact of steel prices.

In the last five years ago metal prices cyclical boom is driven by China’s huge demand.

Goldman sachs said in a report, metal prices now if you want to continue to rebound, China needs two things: one is the government needs to expand credit, and the other is a real estate sales growth.

Goldman sachs predicts that the Chinese government will not take long-term low interest rates to stimulate the economy. The bank said, China’s debt accounted for the proportion of gross domestic product (GDP) is already high and rising, at the same time, in the coming year and the new development built building dish is likely to continue to maintain a weakness.

China’s real estate industry has been the greatest demand copper, aluminum and steel and other metal industry, one of the slowdown in real estate industry is one of the main causes of metals demand slump.

Metal the fragile nature of the recent rally to emerge: on Tuesday February in China import and export data, weak base metals such as copper, zinc and nickel dropped sharply. February dollar-denominated Chinese exports fell 25.4% year on year, a 13.8% drop in imports.

The trade data sparked concerns.

But some analysts said, in fact, China’s metals demand still maintain a good state. ANZ bank (ANZ) Hynes, points out that although copper and iron ore imports fell, but so far this year, copper and iron ore imports have increased by 23.6% and 23.6% respectively.

Hynes said better-than-expected data shows that the basis of metal commodities market is turning a corner, may no longer see the cyclical lows of earlier this year.

Iron ore and steel prices fell on Tuesday with a day after contrast to rise sharply. The rise in prices is due to the Chinese government over the weekend at a meeting of the National People’s Congress promises to solve such as steel industry overcapacity problem, such measures would reduce supply, pushing up prices.